后方油库整体生存概率分析计算

针对我军后方油库特点,探讨了油库整体生存概率计算的基本思路和方法,分析了各类分项目标生存概率的计算方法,采用层次分析对后方油库各分项目标权值进行了详细分析计算,可为后方油库伪装防护效能评估提供依据。     

面向任务的导弹测试性需求分析与指标确定

针对当前缺乏科学合理的理论和方法确定导弹系统级测试性指标的现状,提出一种面向任务需求的测试性指标确定方法.将导弹任务剖面划分为贮存、出库、部署和发射四个阶段,并提出各个阶段相应的测试需求;分别建立基于贮存可用度、战斗准备任务成功率、部署战备完好率和发射任务成功率为性能要求的测试性需求子模型,给出各个性能指标与测试性参数...     

速率偏频激光陀螺寻北仪中转台测角周期性误差的影响分析

连续旋转式寻北仪以其突出的性能成为当前寻北仪研究的热点,但关于转台误差对连续旋转寻北算法精度影响的分析很少.针对速率偏频激光陀螺寻北仪,研究了转台测角周期性误差对寻北结果的影响.理论分析表明,测角周期性误差的存在会导致寻北结果偏离真实值,必须对其进行建模和补偿以提高寻北精度.对理论分析结果进行了仿真实验和样机寻北实验验...     

概率分布模型的飞机战备完好率评估与预测

飞机战备完好率是军用飞机战斗力的重要体现.在分析目前部队常用的飞机战备完好率算法缺陷的基础上,建立了基于概率分布的飞机战备完好率计算模型,该模型体现了飞机任务可靠性、维修性与战备完好性之间的关系.以某型飞机为例,通过分析飞机任务可靠度,利用飞机可靠性、维修性、保障性及作战训练任务的历史统计数据,依据概率分布模型对飞机的...     

电缆线端面火蔓延速率估算

根据某化工厂火灾现场勘验结果,运用火灾事故调查方法,推断火灾事故发生的原因。在分析电缆起火原因时,引用计算火蔓延速率的半经验公式,并且根据实际对公式的参数进行修订,对高压电缆火灾的蔓延时间进行理论上的推导,最后用火灾实际发生时间来检验计算结果,以进一步佐证火灾原因调查的正确性。     

基于方位角变化率的快速高精度无源定位方法

在分析现有单站无源定位方法优缺点的基础上,根据运动平台对固定目标无源定位技术的特点,提出了一种通过方位角变化率信息对观测站与目标间距离进行解算的快速高精度无源定位方法。并通过仿真,验证了该方法是一种高精度、快速的定位方法,具有较强的通用性。其主要应用于机载无源探测设备对地面固定雷达站或其他辐射源定位,从而为引导导弹对其攻击提供必要的数据。     

基于满足率的随舰备件配置方案

针对满足率只有统计定义的问题,从不同角度研究了备件满足率的概率性质,给出了满足率的两种概率模型,揭示了满足率的内涵和实际工程意义。在此基础上,给出了系统备件保障满足率的概率定义,建立了以系统备件满足率为约束、备件总重量最小为目标的随舰备件配置优化模型,研究了优化模型的边际效益算法。实例分析表明：该方法为合理制定舰艇随舰备件保障方案提供了决策依据。     

Some comparisons of residual life of coherent systems with exchangeable components

Most of the research, on the study of the reliability properties of technical systems, assume that the components of the system operate independently. However, in real life situation, it is more reasonable to assume that there is dependency among the components of the system. In this article, we give sufficient conditions based on the signature and the joint distribution of component lifetimes to obtain stochastic ordering results for coherent and mixed systems with exchangeable components. Some stochastic orders on dynamic (or conditional) signature of coherent systems are also provided. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 549–556, 2014     

高分辨率UAV SAR的三维运动误差分离与补偿

在基于SAR回波的数据处理中,多普勒调频率具有很高的估计精度且对场景的依赖性很小,可以更广泛地用于自聚焦处理。基于多普勒调频率参数估计,针对回波包络及相位分别提出了误差提取模型,并通过包络误差校正和相位误差补偿两个步骤实现了高精度的运动补偿处理。实测数据表明,本文方法可以在低精度导航信息情况下获取高分辨率雷达图像。     

Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014